India vs China population

What this page compares

This page puts the two most populous countries in the data side by side: India and China. It compares one thing, total population, for every year from 1960 to 2050. It does not compare the two economies, their age structure in detail or their cities. The crowd at the top, the line chart and the paragraphs above all use the same series, so a number quoted in the text can always be found by moving the slider on the comparer.

How the two series were built

Both lines come from the World Bank "Population, total" indicator (SP.POP.TOTL) in the population estimates and projections database, which draws on United Nations and national statistics. The two countries are not measured in the same way. China's values in the estimated years appear rounded to the nearest five thousand, while India's are given to the single person. That difference is an artefact of how each series is published; it does not mean one count is more exact than the other. India's series in this file runs from 435,990,338 in 1960 to 1,463,865,525 in 2025, and China's from 667,070,000 to 1,406,585,000.

The moment the order changed

On this series India overtakes China in 2021. In 1960 China had 1.53× as many people as India; by 2021 the order had reversed, and in 2025 India has 1.04× as many as China. Because the crossover lies before 2025, it sits in the estimated part of the series rather than the projection. A different edition of the data, or a different organisation's estimate, can place the crossing a year or two earlier or later, which is why dates in the press differ. The year shown here is the year in this series and nothing more.

China's population peaks in 2021 at 1,412,360,000 and declines afterwards, while India's keeps rising to 1.68 billion in 2050. The gap in 2050 is therefore 437 million on the projected figures, and India would have 1.35× as many people as China.

Reasons the curves part

The file lists a fertility rate of 1.96 births per woman for India and 1.01 for China (both for 2024); replacement level is roughly 2.1. China has 14.9% of its people aged 65 or older against 7.4% in India, and 15.4% under 15 against 24.2%. A population with fewer young people has fewer future parents, so the shape of the age structure matters as much as the current birth rate. These indicators are also World Bank values for the latest year available and are not projected on this page.

Cautions

• The projection continues today's trends. A change in fertility policy, migration or mortality would move the 2050 figures, and more so the further out you look.
• The population of China here is the World Bank's mainland series. Hong Kong and Macao are separate entries in the data, and are not included in China's line.
• Resident population is not the same as the number of citizens, and neither series says anything about where within a country people live.

Two different paths to the same size

Both countries had well over 400 million people in 1960, yet they grew at different speeds. Between 1960 and 2025, India's population multiplied by 3.36× and China's by 2.11×. China's growth slowed first, and in 2021 its series turns downward; India's growth also slows over time but stays positive in every year of the series. The comparer makes this visible: drag the slider from 1960 to 2050 and watch one crowd thicken while the other thins.

The size of each country relative to the whole data set is a useful second reading. Together India and China are 35% of the 8.19 billion counted on this site in 2025, and 30% of the 9.61 billion projected for 2050. Their share falls even though India still grows, because other regions grow faster.

How to use this comparison

Use this page to check a sentence before you repeat it. If a speaker says one country is "about to be double" the other, the ratio line at the top tells you the actual figure for 2025, and the chart shows what the same ratio was in earlier years. If you need a particular year, such as a census year, open the comparer and set the slider there. If you need a figure quoted exactly, take it from the full number in the paragraphs above, which is printed in full, and cite the World Bank series rather than this site.

Questions

Which country is larger today?

India, with 1.46 billion against 1.41 billion for China in 2025.

Will the gap keep growing?

On the projection, yes: the series has India rising and China falling every year after 2021, so the gap widens through 2050. That is a continuation of present trends, not a prediction of events.

Can I see another year?

Use the link to the comparer on this page; it opens on this pair and lets you drag the slider to any year in the series.